Igwell Predicts...: 12/01/2011

The Year in Drafts, 2011

Posts I Didn't Care to Complete, 2011

Does Robert Greenblatt Give a Fuck? (December 9)
He works for a cable company.

Laugh-Enhanced (December 3)
Laughter is a crutch.

Network as Punchline (November 18)
NBC is. CW was, before people stopped caring.

The Critics versus Prime Suspect (October 29)
Why did the critics think the average NBC viewer was intimately familiar with the British version?

What They Said in 2010 (May 16, around the Upfronts)
Praise for My Generation and Off the Map.

The TV Litmus Test (April 18)
If it's better than Modern Family, watch it. If it's worse, don't.

Retro TV Art

What a neat idea for a flyer, what a neat idea for a film festival. Too bad this happened 7 weeks ago.

New Year's Rerun Marathons, 2012

I'd make a new list for this year, but The Wrap already did, and I don't watch reruns,
other than those of The Simpsons and MST3K.

New Year's Rerun Marathons, 2011

Shows with Deals, as of July 25, 2012

Consult these up-to-date pages: Shows with Deals and Reruns on TV.

Although every network has primetime shows that reach 100 episodes and go into syndication, CBS is the gold standard.

CBS Shows with Deals

Mike & Molly -- FX, local stations (2013)
2 Broke Girls -- TBS, local stations (2014)
CSI: NY -- Spike, TNT
CSI -- USA, Cloo, Spike
NCIS -- USA, Cloo
NCIS: LA -- USA
Criminal Minds -- A&E, Ion, local stations
The Mentalist -- TNT
Hawaii Five-0 -- TNT (2013)
The Big Bang Theory -- TBS, local stations
Two and a Half Men -- FX, local stations
How I Met Your Mother -- FX, Lifetime, local stations
Rules of Engagement -- WGN
60 Minutes -- CNBC
Undercover Boss - OWN

ABC has a bunch of unscripted shows that did sell. Private Practice has reached enough episodes for syndication this season, and The Middle will hit syndication after next season.

ABC Shows with Deals

Grey's Anatomy -- Lifetime, local stations
Desperate Housewives -- Lifetime
America's Funniest Home Videos -- WGN, local stations
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition -- CMT, TV Land
Primetime: What Would You Do? -- OWN
Wipeout -- TruTV
Wife Swap -- Lifetime
Castle -- TNT (2012)
Modern Family -- FX (2013)

Few of NBC's shows in recent years have lasted one year, much less four. Community may be bought by Comedy Central, and Parks and Recreation will reach syndication after next season.

NBC Shows with Deals

Law & Order: SVU -- USA, Cloo, MyNet, local stations
30 Rock -- Comedy Central, WGN, local stations
The Office -- TBS, local stations
Fear Factor -- Chiller
Dateline -- I.D.

FOX gives up a larger proportional chunk of its schedule to competitions, but the reliable Seth Macfarlane factory leads directly to Cartoon Network. Fringe enters syndication next season.

FOX Shows with Deals

Simpsons -- local stations
Family Guy -- Cartoon Network, TBS, local stations
American Dad -- Cartoon Network, TBS, local stations
Cleveland -- Cartoon Network
Glee -- Oxygen (2013)
Bones -- TNT, local stations
Kitchen Nightmares -- BBC America, CMT
COPS -- G4, TruTV, local stations

Credit: Spotted for leads and future deals.

Other Current Shows with Deals

CW: America's Next Top Model -- Style
CW: Supernatural -- TNT
CW: Gossip Girl -- Style
TBS: Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns -- local stations
TBS: Tyler Perry's House of Payne -- local stations
TNT: Leverage -- Ion (Summer 2012)
TNT: The Closer -- local stations
HBO: Curb Your Enthusiasm -- TV Guide Network
Showtime: Weeds -- TV Guide Network
FX: It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia -- Comedy Central, WGN, local
Comedy Central: South Park -- WGN, local
USA: Burn Notice -- My Net (until Fall 2012)
USA: White Collar -- MyNet (Fall 2012)
USA: Psych -- Ion
TV Land: Hot in Cleveland -- local stations (2014)

Reruns on TV, as of January 1, 2012

CBS

TBS
The Big Bang Theory
The King of Queens
Yes, Dear

TNT
CSI: NY
The Mentalist
Hawaii Five-0 (2013)

FX
Two and a Half Men
How I Met Your Mother

Nickelodeon
The Nanny

TV Land
Murder, She Wrote
Good Times
The Jeffersons
Andy Griffith
The Dick Van Dyke Show
M*A*S*H
Everybody Loves Raymond
The King of Queens
The Nanny

Spike
CSI
CSI: NY
Walker, Texas Ranger

CMT
The Dukes of Hazzard

USA
NCIS
NCIS: LA (2013)
CSI
Becker

SyFy
The Twilight Zone

Cloo
NCIS
CSI
JAG
Walker, Texas Ranger

Chiller
The Twilight Zone
Ghost Whisperer

Universal HD
The Dukes of Hazzard
Hack
The Unit
Nash Bridges

CNBC
60 Minutes

A&E
Criminal Minds
CSI: Miami

Lifetime
How I Met Your Mother
The New Adventures of Old Christine

I.D.
48 Hours Mystery

OWN
Undercover Boss

TV One
Good Times
The Jeffersons

We
Ghost Whisperer

Reelz
Becker

HD Net
JAG

GMC
Cosby
The Waltons
Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman

TV Guide
Designing Women
Cybill

WGN
Walker, Texas Ranger
The Unit
Rules of Engagement (2012)

My
Cold Case
Without a Trace

Ion
Flashpoint
Criminal Minds
Ghot Whisperer
Without a Trace

Retro
Route 66

Family Net
The Mary Tyler Moore Show
Newhart
The Bob Newhart Show

Antenna TV
All in the Family
Burns and Allen
Father Knows Best
Dennis the Menace
Good Times
Maude
The Nanny

Me/Me Too
I Love Lucy
The Beverly Hillbillies
Petticoat Junction
Gomer Pyle
Gunsmoke
The Wild Wild West
Hogan's Heroes
Dobie Gillis
Sgt. Bilko
My Favorite Martian
Lost In Space
The Twilight Zone
The Bob Newhart Show
Cannon
Family Affair
M*A*S*H
Hawaii Five-O
Kojak

local stations
The Big Bang Theory
Two and a Half Men
How I Met Your Mother
Everybody Loves Raymond
The King of Queens
The New Adventures of Old Christine
Criminal Minds
The Unit
Cold Case
Without a Trace

ABC

TBS
According to Jim
Home Improvement

ABC Family
Boy Meets World
8 Simple Rules

TeenNick
Full House

Nick
My Wife and Kids
George Lopez
Family Matters

MTV2
Boy Meets World

BET
My Wife and Kids

Boomerang
The Flintstones
The Jetsons

Hub
The Wonder Years
Doogie Howser, M.D.
Happy Days
Laverne & Shirley
Batman

Lifetime
Grey's Anatomy
Desperate Housewives
Wife Swap

Oxygen
Roseanne

CMT
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition

Universal HD
Charlie's Angels
T.J. Hooker

Reelz
Spin City
Coach

TruTV
Wipeout

TV Guide Network
Samantha Who?
Ugly Betty
Dharma & Greg

TV One
That's My Mama!

TV Land
Roseanne
Home Improvement
Three's Company
Leave It to Beaver
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition

WGN
America's Funniest Home Videos
Matlock
Bewitched

YouToo
Batman
The Green Hornet

FamilyNet
Mr. Belvedere

local channels
Brothers & Sisters
America's Funniest Home Videos
According to Jim
Grey's Anatomy
Ugly Betty
Roseanne

NBC

TBS
The Office
My Name Is Earl
Friends
Seinfeld
Fresh Prince of Bel-Air
Saved by the Bell

TNT
Law & Order
Las Vegas

USA
Law & Order: Criminal Intent
Law & Order: SVU
Cheers

G4
Quantum Leap

Bravo
Law & Order: Criminal Intent

ABC Family
Fresh Prince of Bel-Air

Lifetime
Will & Grace

Oxygen
Law & Order: Criminal Intent

Hallmark
Golden Girls
Cheers
Frasier
Little House on the Prairie

We
Golden Girls
Frasier

Comedy Central
30 Rock
Scrubs

VH-1
Saturday Night Live

Nick
Friends

Hub
Family Ties

Boomerang
The Smurfs
The Snorks

TV Guide Network
Veronica's Closet

Sundance
Freaks & Geeks

Reelz
Cheers
Wings
3rd Rock from the Sun

Chiller
Fear Factor

Cloo
Law & Order: Criminal Intent
Law & Order: SVU

C&I
Crossing Jordan

Universal HD
Law & Order: Criminal Intent

I.D.
Dateline

TLC
Dateline: Real Life Mysteries

Centric
Homicide
The Cosby Show
227
Miami Vice
The A-Team

TV One
A Different World
Amen

GMC
Amen

TV Land
Bonanza

WGN
Law & Order: Criminal Intent
30 Rock
Scrubs
Mad About You
Cheers
In the Heat of the Night
I Dream of Jeannie

Retro
Highway to Heaven
The Bill Cosby Show
I Spy
Daniel Boone
Peter Gunn
Police Story
Movin' On

FamilyNet
Remington Steele
I Spy

My
Law & Order: SVU

local stations
Seinfeld
Friends
My Name Is Earl
30 Rock
The Office
Law & Order:: SVU
Law & Order: Criminal Intent
Law & Order
Scrubs
Cheers
Frasier

FOX

Comedy Central
Futurama

TeenNick
Malcolm in the Middle

Cartoon Network
Family Guy
American Dad
Cleveland
King of the Hill

TBS
Family Guy
American Dad
Married with Children

IFC
Malcolm in the Middle
Arrested Development
Action

BBC America
The X-Files
Kitchen Nightmares

CMT
Kitchen Nightmares

Cloo
'Til Death

HDNet
Prison Break

GSN
Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?

G4
COPS

TruTV
COPS

Oxygen
House
Living Single
Glee (2013)

ABC Family
That '70s Show

Nick
That '70s Show

MTV
That '70s Show

MTV2
Martin

BET
The Bernie Mac Show

Centric
In Living Color
Living Single

TV Guide Network
Ned & Stacey

TV One
Martin
Living Single

YouToo
The X-Files

WGN
Futurama
'Til Death

local stations
Bones
American Dad
COPS
Futurama
King of the Hill
Family Guy
The Simpsons
That '70s Show
House
'Til Death

CW / UPN / WB

The Game -- BET
Everybody Hates Chris -- BET, Nick, TeenNick, local stations
Smallville -- TNT, HDNet
Half & Half -- TV One
Eve -- TV One
The Steve Harvey Show -- Centric
The Wayans Bros. -- Centric, MTV2
Malcolm & Eddie -- MTV2
Girlfriends -- Centric
The Jamie Foxx Show -- Centric
Sister, Sister -- GMC
Reba -- Lifetime
Buffy -- Chiller, Logo
Charmed -- TNT, We
The Parkers -- BET
What I Like About You -- ABC Family
Gilmore Girls -- ABC Family
Angel -- TNT

HBO
The Sopranos -- A&E
Sex and the City -- E!, Style
Entourage -- Spike, Comedy Central

FX
Nip/Tuck -- Logo

Comedy Central
Reno 911 -- Logo

MTV
Punk'd -- TV Guide Network
Pimp My Ride -- Speed

USA
Monk -- Cloo, My, local stations
psych -- Cloo, Ion
Burn Notice -- Cloo, My

Smash Forecast

Smash gets NBC's best lead-in, The Voice, which should propel it to an average rating better than the rest of NBC's hour-longs. Smash is also NBC President Bob Greenblatt's pet project, so it's not difficult to predict a renewal, even if the ratings fall below 2.0.

Will viewers of The Voice want a third hour of singing? Is NBC banking on some traffic from Dancing with the Stars? Would such an "optimistic" show fit at 10pm? What was the last good thing Steven Spielberg did?

One thing is for sure: it's a musical on NBC on Mondays at 10pm.

My A La Carte / What I Watch

At first, I thought "customized channel lineups" meant that you could reprogram the channel numbers. It means subscribing to individual channels "a la carte." Here's the channels I would choose, with the channel numbers of my choice, as well as the shows I watch.

2 HBO - Eastbound and Down, The Life and Times of Tim, The Ricky Gervais Show, Curb Your Enthusiasm
3 TV One - Sanford and Son, The Jeffersons, Good Times
4 NBC - 30 Rock, Community, Up All Night
5 FOX - Simpsons, Family Guy, Bob's Burgers, Raising Hope, American Dad, Cleveland
6 PBS - Nova, Nature
7 ABC - Suburbia
8 TBS - Conan
9 CBS - CBS This Morning, Letterman
10 FX - Louie, Archer, Wilfred, The League
11 Comedy Central - The Daily Show, The Colbert Report, South Park
12 IFC - Portlandia, Todd Margaret
13 MTV - Beavis and Butt-Head
14 NBC Sports - Hockey
15 BBC America
16 Sundance
17 AMC
18 The Hub - Dan Vs
19 Cartoon Network
20 CNN
21 National Geographic
22 E! - After Lately

Channels Ranked Higher Than Current

Animation Network
Applause
The Chronology Channel
The Climate Channel
Dynamite
Scientific American Wild
Helium
HyFy
Lifespan
Television Listings Network
Mineral Planet
OBN: Orlando Bloom Network
Papyrus Channel
Sorry
TCB
Temporary Yule Log
The Tourism Channel
UAE
Velocity

Nowhere But Down

Martin Bashir -- MSNBC and Dateline
Tom Brokaw -- NBC News correspondent
Aaron Brown -- PBS's Wide Angle
Campbell Brown -- unemployed
Katie Couric -- ABC News correspondent, daytime talk show
Charlie Gibson -- retired
Ted Koppel -- NPR, Rock Center
Keith Olbermann -- Current
Stone Phillips -- 20/20
Dan Rather -- HDNet
John Roberts -- Fox News
Forrest Sawyer -- documentary producer
John Seigenthaler -- his family's P.R. firm
Maria Shriver -- unemployed
Carole Simpson -- blogger
Harry Smith -- Rock Center
John Stossel -- FOX Business Channel
Kathleen Sullivan -- Huffington Post blogger
Elizabeth Vargas -- 20/20
Meredith Vieira -- Rock Center
Bob Woodruff -- ABC News reporter, Planet Green

"Work It" called an insult to television

...by me. Tim Goodman says it's the worst show of the season, which means it's worse than "How to Be a Gentleman," and that is impossible.

Will Broadcast Outlast Cable?

Radio is still around. Operations have been streamlined and budgets have been slashed to nearly zero. But it's still around.

Free entertainment is hard to give up.

Local TV stations have been following the radio formula of firings and consolidation, including "teaming up" with local radio stations. CBS has even grouped its owned local radio and TV websites into subsections of cbslocal.com.

Cable, on the other hand, has continued to expand for thirty years, to the point that it has become a chore, rather than a pleasure, to comb through the TV listings.

Has cable peaked?

OWN has been a money pit. ESPN's new Longhorn Channel continues to have trouble getting carried on Pay-TV systems in Texas, including Austin itself. The Hub has done some good business -- for Hasbro. Bride Central was recently shut down. Just the fact that Vince McMahon has decided to get into the business should give media companies pause.

As customers increasingly use Video on Demand, they're going to reconsider their options, as Netflix fills the need for roughly 80% less than cable service.

Update: January 4, 2012

Hallmark's Martha Stewart block has officially failed after two seasons. Conan has leveled off in the ratings closer to George Lopez than Jay Leno.

CBS Shows in Syndication

AMC bought CSI: Miami reruns last week, making it the latest channel to air reruns from CBS.

Current CBS Shows with Deals

CSI: Miami -- AMC, A&E
CSI: NY -- Spike
CSI -- USA, Cloo, Spike
NCIS -- USA, Cloo
NCIS: LA -- USA
Criminal Minds -- A&E, Ion
The Mentalist -- TNT
Hawaii Five-0 -- TNT
The Big Bang Theory -- TBS
Two and a Half Men -- FX
How I Met Your Mother -- FX, Lifetime
Rules of Engagement -- WGN
60 Minutes -- CNBC
Undercover Boss - OWN

Veteran shows The Good Wife and Blue Bloods will likely last long enough to get deals. The Amazing Race and Survivor have had deals. Freshmen shows Unforgettable, Person of Interest, 2 Broke Girls, and A Gifted Man round out the CBS schedule.

Reruns from CBS, as of December 2011

TBS
The Big Bang Theory
The King of Queens
Yes, Dear

TNT
CSI: NY
The Mentalist
Hawaii Five-0 (2013)

FX
Two and a Half Men
How I Met Your Mother

Nickelodeon
The Nanny

TV Land
Good Times
The Jeffersons
Andy Griffith
The Dick Van Dyke Show
M*A*S*H
Everybody Loves Raymond
The King of Queens
The Nanny

Spike
CSI
CSI: NY
Walker, Texas Ranger

CMT
The Dukes of Hazzard

USA
NCIS
NCIS: LA (2013)
CSI
Becker

SyFy
The Twilight Zone

Cloo
NCIS
CSI
JAG
Walker, Texas Ranger

Chiller
The Twilight Zone
Ghost Whisperer

Universal HD
The Dukes of Hazzard
Hack
The Unit
Nash Bridges

CNBC
60 Minutes

A&E
Criminal Minds
CSI: Miami

Lifetime
How I Met Your Mother
The New Adventures of Old Christine

I.D.
48 Hours Mystery

OWN
Undercover Boss

TV One
Good Times
The Jeffersons

We
Ghost Whisperer

Reelz
Becker

HD Net
JAG

GMC
The Waltons
Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman

TV Guide
Designing Women
Cybill

WGN
Walker, Texas Ranger
The Unit
Rules of Engagement (2012)

My
Cold Case
Without a Trace

Ion
Flashpoint
Criminal Minds
Ghot Whisperer
Without a Trace

Retro
Route 66

Family Net
The Mary Tyler Moore Show
Newhart
The Bob Newhart Show

Antenna TV
All in the Family
Burns and Allen
Father Knows Best
Dennis the Menace
Good Times
Maude
The Nanny

Me/Me Too
I Love Lucy
The Beverly Hillbillies
Petticoat Junction
Gomer Pyle
Gunsmoke
The Wild Wild West
Hogan's Heroes
Dobie Gillis
Sgt. Bilko
My Favorite Martian
Lost In Space
The Twilight Zone
The Bob Newhart Show
Cannon
Family Affair
M*A*S*H
Hawaii Five-O
Kojak

local stations
The Big Bang Theory
Two and a Half Men
How I Met Your Mother
Everybody Loves Raymond
The King of Queens
The New Adventures of Old Christine
Criminal Minds
The Unit
Cold Case
Without a Trace

TV's Purgatory

The eternal TV riddle: Which came first, the cancellation or the move to Fridays?

The NFL Tax

IF Pay TV customers were to pay all $27.5 Billion of the networks' new 9-season NFL contract, how much would this NFL Tax be?

$27.5 Billion / 100 million subscriptions = $275 per subscription. $275 / 9 seasons = $30.50 per season = $2.55 per month.

Deadline says: "In order for all of the media partners to break even under the new contract, Miller Tabak analyst David Joyce estimates that the average pay TV subscriber would have to pay $11.23 a month..."

Someone's doing some sleight-of-hand.

Deadline Uses Terrible Clip Art

New York City - Local Stations

Rise of the Specials

Last May, FOX canceled weekly episodes of America's Most Wanted but ordered four specials. ABC has now done exactly the same with Extreme Makeover: Home Edition.

The news comes a day after CBS re-established interview program Person to Person, "which will be shown occasionally in prime time, starting Wednesday, Feb. 8 at 8/7c."

Annual holiday specials have gotten better ratings than last year. A couple weeks ago, CBS's Rudolph scored a surprising 4.0 and Victoria Secret's Fashion Show hit a new high. On ABC, last night's 10 Most Fascinating People was up year-to-year. FOX's made up country music award show was up 25% versus its debut last season.

FOX even ordered up a new Charlie Brown special of its own, and aired it after a new Ice Age cartoon on Thanksgiving (1.3 and 2.6 respectively). The CW's Muppets special has so far only been topped by 5 non-Vampire episodes the network has aired this season. NBC's Christmas in Rockefeller Center claimed a 1.9, which is not bad for NBC, and not bad for an hour built around plugging in a Christmas tree. FOX has also picked up UFC specials to help fill its Saturday nights, the first of which hit 3.0.

ABC has relied on its package of Charlie Brown specials since 2000, using them to fill holes left in the schedule left by canceled shows such as My Generation and Charlie's Angels. ABC also aired stints of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire in 2004 and 2009. Update from tomorrow: ABC's specials last night did not do well:

This Saturday, FOX will air its second America's Most Wanted special, NBC will air this year's WWE Tribute to the Troops, CBS will rerun both Frostys and The Story of Santa Claus from 1996, and ABC will rerun CMA Country Christmas from December 1. Next week, the networks offer up last year's Kung Fu Panda Holiday Special, A Chipmunk Christmas from 1981, SNL's A Very Gilly Christmas, both Prep & Landings, I Want a Dog for Christmas, Charlie Brown, Shrek the Halls, Phineas and Ferb, as well as this year's adoption awareness special, A Home for the Holidays with Martina McBride, culminating with the Grinch on Christmas night. During the following week, there's Rudolph's Shiny New Year, the Kennedy Center Honors, and, naturally, Happy New Year, Charlie Brown.

The high volume recalls years of television past when Hanna-Barbara characters were roasted by Roy Clark, on ice.

How long before we see Chaz and Cher singing Christmas carols and trading light-hearted banter with Nick Cannon and the cast of Glee?

NBC's 3.0+ Short List, Fall 2011

Every Sunday Night Football game
3.9 The Office, September 22
3.7 Up All Night, September 14
3.6 America's Got Talent, September 14
3.5 The Office, September 29
3.5 Fear Factor, December 13, 9pm
3.3 The Office, September 13
3.3 Whitney, September 22
3.3 Fear Factor, December 13, 8pm
3.2 The Office, October 6
3.2 The Office, November 3
3.0 The Office, November 10

Source: Spotted

Network Space for Rent

The program will air Saturday afternoons.

Is a trend developing?

For a long time, networks have rented their airtime out to political candidates, as well as aired movies produced and sponsored by Hallmark, and more recently, Wal-Mart/P&G. For several years, FOX has had a block of infomercials that most affiliates air on Saturday mornings.

Twice as much Face the Nation

Why? Political ads.

12 hours after that announcement, Deadline brought us the exciting news.

NBC's Midseason Relaunch

Out:
Chuck
Community
Free Agents
Parenthood
The Playboy Club
Prime Suspect
The Sing-Off
(Sunday Night Football)

In:
30 Rock
Are You There, Chelsea
The Celebrity Apprentice
Fashion Star
The Firm
Smash
The Voice
Who Do You Think You Are?

Moving:
The Biggest Loser
Harry's Law
Rock Center
Up All Night
Whitney

Staying Put:
Dateline
Grimm
Law & Order: SVU
The Office
Parks & Recreation

Eh, close enough.

Terra Nova's Fate

The fact that FOX gives a free ride to some young shows should not be shocking, because FOX does it every year, despite having a relatively strong primetime.

Fringe has been given a free ride for the last two seasons. Bob's Burgers was renewed with the lowest ratings of FOX's five cartoons. Breaking In was un-canceled after Sony made a deal.

So, what shows get the free ride next season? Three shows yet to premiere, Alcatraz, Touch, and Napoleon Dynamite, are good candidates for saving if they perform below average. FOX has three Fall shows on the bubble, if you want to somehow include Fringe, which has made enough episodes to reach regular syndication (but who would buy it). Its free ride is over. Allen Gregory got embarrassing numbers and reviews. That leaves Terra Nova. Will Terra Nova be given a free ride? It depends on a lot of variables, including:

With House and Bones on their way out, does FOX need Terra Nova?

If you promote a show to the moon and cancel it after a short season, does it damage your network's credibility?

Will it continue to be expensive to produce new episodes?

Does FOX think Terra Nova can be fixed?

I'll stick with my prediction, because I believe the 2.1 on Halloween did seal Terra Nova's fate.

FOX's Upcoming Four-Sitcom Tuesdays

HitFixDaniel is too busy posting "funny" tweets every hour on the hour to respond. So let me detail my response here. First, why a rerun? FOX had planned to put I Hate My Teenage Daughter on Tuesdays. But FOX foresaw its ratings slide after the 2.8 debut, and figured a New Girl rerun would perform better.

Second, I do think FOX will go with four sitcoms on Tuesday and pair Glee with The X Factor and American Idol next season.

FOX hasn't gotten a new drama hit in three seasons.
Comedy is in. The only comedy competition at 8pm Tuesdays is Tim Allen, and he is not a threat.
Glee doesn't repeat well. Sitcoms generally do.
Glee works better with Idol than sitcoms and Bones.
Glee's ratings continue to sink. Pairing Glee with Idol should help both shows' ratings.
A rerun lead-in gives FOX an excuse to un-cancel Breaking In a third time.

UPDATE, January 14, 2012

Not that it would be difficult to predict that FOX would need a place next season to put some new live-action comedies, but there you have it.

Grimm Prediction

How'd it do?

WOW! Better than The Office! The tv fans were right!

Oh.

Series Lows, 2011-2012

Updated on September 9, 2012

I've been reading the phrase "series low" a lot lately. So I looked them up.

(Includes veteran scripted series, rookie scripted series that have been or were likely to be renewed, and some nonscripted series.)

Renewed / Canceled statuses pertain to the 2012-2013 season.

SUMMER

1.9 America's Got Talent (Thursday, September 6, 2012, 8pm-9)

1.5 So You Think You Can Dance (Wednesday, September 5, August 29 and 22, 2012, 8pm-10)

1.7 Big Brother (Sunday, September 2, 2012, 8pm-9)

0.8 Dateline (Friday, August 31, 2012, 10pm) Renewed

0.4 America's Next Top Model (Friday, August 31 and 24, 8pm, and Wednesday, May 23 and 9, 2012, 9pm) Renewed

0.9 Rookie Blue (Thursday, August 30, 2012, 9pm)

1.1 Wipeout (Thursday, August 30, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

1.1 Bachelor Pad (Monday, August 6, and July 23, 2012, 8pm-10)

0.8 Extreme Makeover: Weight Loss Edition (Sunday, August 5, 2012, 9pm-11)

0.8 Secret Millionaire (Sunday, August 5, 2012, 8pm)

2.0 Hell's Kitchen (Tuesday, July 3, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

SPRING

1.3 Touch (Thursday, May 31, 2012, 8pm-10) Renewed

0.7 Harry's Law (Sunday, May 27 and 6, 2012, 8pm) CANCELED

1.7 Bob's Burgers (Sunday, May 18, and April 1, 2012, 8:30) Renewed

0.4 Nikita (Friday, May 18, 11, and 4, April 27, 19, March 30 and 16, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

1.3 Community (Thursday, May 17, 8pm, 9pm, and 9:30, and April 19 and 5, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

2.0 Revenge (Wednesday, May 16 and 2, and April 25, 2012, and November 23, 2011, 10pm) Renewed

1.9 Don't Trust the Bitch in Apartment 23 (Wednesday, May 16, 2012, 9:30) Renewed

1.8 Suburgatory (Wednesday, May 16 and 2 and April 18, 2012, 8:30) Renewed

2.5 Glee (Tuesday, May 15, 8pm and 9pm, 1 and April 17, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

1.0 Cougar Town (Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 8pm and 8:30) Renewed by TBS

0.5 90210 (Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

1.8 Smash (Monday, May 14 and 7, and April 30, 2012, 10pm) Renewed

1.9 Bones (Monday, May 14 and 7, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

1.8 Celebrity Apprentice (Sunday, May 13, April 1, 2012, 8-11pm; March 25 and 18, February 26, 9-11pm) Renewed

2.4 Family Guy (Sunday, May 13, 2012, 9pm) Renewed

1.9 The Simpsons (Sunday, May 13, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

1.3 Blue Bloods (Friday, May 11 and 4, 2012, 10pm) Renewed

1.2 Grimm (Friday, May 11 and March 30, 2012, 9pm) Renewed

1.2 CSI: NY (Friday, May 11 and 4, 2012, and December 2, 2011, 9pm) RENEWED

1.1 Undercover Boss (Friday, May 11 and 4, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

1.9 Scandal (Thursday, May 10 and April 15, 2012, 10pm) Renewed

1.4 Private Practice (Tuesday, May 8, 2012, 10pm) Renewed for a final season

1.3 Fashion Star (Tuesday, May 8, 2012, 10pm) Renewed

2.3 Hawaii Five-0 (Monday, May 7, 2012, and May 9, 2011, 10pm) Renewed

0.4 Gossip Girl (Monday, May 7, 2012, 9pm) Renewed for a final season

3.3 2 Broke Girls (Monday, May 7, 2012, 8-9pm) Renewed

0.9 Fringe (Friday, May 5, April 13, and March 23, 2012, 9pm) Renewed for a final season

2.3 CSI (Wednesday, May 2, 2012, and Thursday, May 5, 2011, 10pm) Renewed

2.6 Survivor (Wednesday, May 2, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

1.8 Unforgettable (Tuesday, May 2, 2012, 10pm) Renewed

3.1 The Voice (Tuesday, May 1, 2012, 9pm) Renewed

1.5 Last Man Standing (Tuesday, May 1, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

1.7 The Good Wife (Sunday, April 29 and March 11, 2012, 9pm) Renewed

1.1 Primetime: What Would You Do? (Friday, April 27, 2012, and March 4, 2011, 9pm) Renewed

2.1 The Office (Thursday, April 26, 2012, 9pm) Renewed

2.4 Person of Interest (Thursday, April 26, 2012, 9pm) Renewed

1.6 Parks and Recreation (Thursday, April 26, 2012, 8:30) Renewed

1.0 The Vampire Diaries (Thursday, April 19, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

1.6 Law & Order: SVU (Wednesday, April 18, February 29 and 22, 2012, 10pm) Renewed

1.8 Raising Hope (Tuesday, April 17 and March 27, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

1.5 GCB (Sunday, April 15, 2011, 10pm) CANCELED

2.4 NCIS: LA (Tuesday, April 10, 9pm) Renewed

1.9 House (Monday, April 9, 2012, 9pm) (canceled)

3.6 Two and a Half Men (Monday, April 9 and February 27, 2012, 9pm, and May 14, 2007, 8:30) Renewed

1.7 CSI: Miami (Sunday, April 8, 2011, 10:51pm) CANCELED

2.8 Grey's Anatomy (Thursday, April 5, 2012, 9pm) Renewed

1.2 Up All Night (Thursday, April 5, 2012, 9:30) Renewed

1.2 30 Rock (Thursday, April 5, 2012, 8:30) Renewed for a final season

3.9 American Idol (Thursday, April 5, 2012, 8-9pm) Renewed

1.3 Breaking In (Tuesday, April 3 and March 20, 2012, and May 17, 2011, 9:30) CANCELED

2.3 New Girl (Tuesday, April 3, 2012, 9pm) Renewed

2.8 Once Upon a Time (Sunday, April 1, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

1.2 The Cleveland Show (Sunday, April 1, February 19 and 12, 2012, 7:30) Renewed

0.7 One Tree Hill (Wednesday, March 28 and 7, February 29, 8 and 1, January 18, 2012, 8pm) CANCELED

0.6 Supernatural (Friday, March 23, 2012, 9pm) Renewed

1.1 Kitchen Nightmares (Friday, March 23, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

2.8 Criminal Minds (Wednesday, March 14, 2012, 9pm) Renewed

1.4 Whitney (Wednesday, March 14, and January 25, 2012, 8pm) Renewed

1.8 The Mentalist (Friday, March 9, 2012, 9pm) Renewed

1.2 Body of Proof (Tuesday, February 14, 2012, 10pm) Renewed

1.6 Parenthood (Tuesday, February 14 and 7, 2012, 10pm) Renewed

1.5 Fear Factor (Sunday, February 12, 2012, 9-11pm) CANCELED

1.8 Desperate Housewives (Sunday, February 12, 2012, 9pm) (canceled)

2011

0.8 Chuck (Friday, December 30, 2011, 8pm) (canceled)

1.9 The Biggest Loser (Tuesday, October 18, 2011, 8-10pm) Renewed

1.3 Happy Endings (Wednesday, August 24, 2011, 9:30, and May 18, 2011, 10:30) Renewed

1.8 MasterChef (Monday, June 6, 2011, 9pm)

2.3 Mike & Molly (Monday, May 9, 2011, 9:30) Renewed

1.6 American Dad (Sunday, May 8 and April 6, 2011, 7:30) Renewed

2.5 How I Met Your Mother (Monday, April 18, 2011, May 1, April 24, 2006, 8pm) Renewed

2.1 The Amazing Race (Sunday, January 23, 2011, 8pm, against "The Oscars") Renewed

2010

1.9 Castle (Monday, December 6, 2010, and April 13, 2009, 10pm) Renewed

2009

2.5 Modern Family (Wednesday, November 25, 2009, 9pm) Renewed

1.7 The Middle (Wednesday, November 25, 2009, 8pm) Renewed

1.9 Rules of Engagement (Thursday, May 13, 2009, 8pm) Renewed

1.1 Shark Tank (Sunday, September 6, 2009, 8pm) Renewed

2008

1.8 The Bachelorette (Monday, June 16, 2008) Renewed

2.8 The Big Bang Theory (Monday, May 19, 5, 2008, 8pm) Renewed

2004

2.4 NCIS (April/May 2004) Renewed

Top Comedies of 2011

Yesterday, James Poniewozik posted his top programs of 2011.

I haven't watched a drama since Homicide, and I don't watch competition shows. That leaves comedy.

These are the comedies that I happily anticipate.

Beavis and Butt-Head
Louie
Community
Archer
Family Guy
Bob's Burgers
The League
Raising Hope
Conan
The Daily Show
The Colbert Report
South Park
Cleveland
American Dad
30 Rock
Up All Night

And these are the comedies I watched this Fall but I will not watch in 2012.

The Office
Modern Family
Suburgatory
New Girl
Parks & Recreation

Diversified Programming

FOX continues to be rewarded for broadening its audience, though the stunt wasn't as enchanting as Rudolph at 8 and lingerie at 10.

For its first 15 years, FOX catered almost exclusively to young males. Now, FOX appeals to somewhat different audiences each night.

Sunday: young males
Monday: a section of drama fans not interested in comedy, football, singing, or dancing.
Tuesday: young females
Wednesday and Thursday: teens and the Dancing with the Stars crowd
Friday: self-help types, scifi diehards
Saturday: the poor

Network TV in 2031

"To some degree we’ll look at broadcast in 20 years as being like (telephone) party lines."

--Reed Hastings

Netflix's CEO is, to some degree, an idiot, but I do wonder what broadcast TV will look like in 20 years.

click to enlarge

To get a sense of the overall network ratings trend, let's look back 20 years. Luckily, I know just where we can find some ratings information from exactly 20 years ago.

I'll give you a few minutes to read the chart.

I'll give you another few minutes to get past the mindbending viewership numbers.

You're not hallucinating. 19 million people watched a Rescue 911 rerun.

In the last 20 years, viewership has been cut in half, while, paradoxically, the ad rates have risen. That, and the fact that broadcast radio still exists, means there's a good chance that network television will stick around long enough to celebrate its centennial milestone in 2046.

In 1991, it would have been difficult to predict where FOX and NBC are in 2011, or that two new networks would start up, exist ten years, and merge. It would also have been difficult in 1971 to predict ABC and NBC would be on top in 1991, or that a fourth network would be established.

In the year 2031 ...

Univision is the highest-rated network.
The CW is a rerun package of old CBS sitcoms.
NBC dropped the 10pm hour. Their highest-rated program is MMA Roller Derby.
My Network TV still airs reruns, but was relaunched as Animation Domination.
The WB's rerun package has beaten NBC for 10 years.
Telemundo has been bought and renamed FOXUMUNDO.
ABC is owned by the NBA and mostly airs basketball games.
CBS's highest-rated program is Electric Bingo.
FOX airs up to three hours of scripted programs per week.
Survivor, at long last, takes place on the moon.
Evening Newscasts have been replaced by whiffleball matches.
And, of course, The Simpsons have been renewed through season 45.

Exciting!

Ratings Stories of the Year

Here's what I got.

1. The networks bounced back from last year's terrible development season.
2. Idol and 2.5 Men didn't collapse.
3. The X Factor led FOX to its first Fall demo win.
4. The Voice gave NBC fans a little bit of hope.
5. New Girl gave FOX a sitcom anchor.
6. Terra Nova squandered a mega-push and hurt House.
7. Whitney Cummings scored two series, one a hit and one a mess.
8. Blue Bloods didn't pass its Wednesday test, but continues to slowly grow on Fridays.
9. The Office, SNF, and SNL are the only NBC shows that have stayed above 1.9 this Fall.
10. The Walking Dead

The NHL's new alignment for 2012-2013

This alignment was approved by the Board of Governors yesterday.

Playoffs
Conference Round 1: 1st & 4th seeds and 2nd & 3rd seeds play.
Conference Round 2: winners from 1st round play each other.
Semi-Finals: The four Conference champions play (seeding to be determined)
Stanley Cup Finals

Sitcom Standings

I had an idea for standings based on Spotted's TRUE Strength metric. But this just turned into a mess. The only value I added was the streak, which The TV Addict should already be doing. Iconographs are from TVaholics.

19 TV Questions

Today, I answer the important hypothetical questions about television. If you disagree, good. There are no incorrect answers. Remember, if you ask a question, you are allowing the possibility of answers you dislike.

"South Park or Beavis & Butt-Head?" Beavis and Butt-Head.
"Simpsons or Family Guy?" Simpsons.
"King of the Hill or Futurama?" King of the Hill.
"Ginger or Mary Ann?" Ginger.
"Joel or Mike?" Joel.
"Which Seinfeld character are you?" Newman.
"Hanna Barbera, Warner Brothers, or Disney?" Warner Brothers.
"Peter Jennings, Dan Rather, or Tom Brokaw?" Tom Brokaw.
"Letterman, Leno, Kimmel, or Conan?" Letterman.
"Colbert or Stewart?" Stewart.
"Ferguson, Kilborn, Snyder, Daly, or Fallon?" Kilborn.
"CBS, NBC, ABC, or FOX?" FOX.
"CNN, MSNBC, HLN, or FOX News?" MSNBC.
"TBS or Comedy Central?" Comedy Central.
"FX, AMC, USA, or TNT?" FX.
"Sitcoms: CBS, NBC, ABC, or FOX?" FOX.
"Favorite Muppet?" Cookie Monster.
"Favorite SNL Character?" Brian Fellows.
"Favorite TV Chef?" The Galloping Gourmet.

The Three Cringeworthy Characters

Here's a quick list of characters in current network sitcoms that I like very much.
1. Dallas in Suburgatory. Acts like an actual teenager. Funny every time.
2. The other kids in Suburgatory. If I thought about it, I could remember the main girl's name. Dahlia? I would know her name if there had been a new episode this week.
3. Everybody in Community. Especially Todd. Todd is the best.
4. Jess in New Girl. She is approxly 90% of why people watch this show.
5. Virginia in Raising Hope. Everyone on that show is pretty good.
6. Ben in Parks and Recreation. He's believable, unlike the rest of the cast.

Here are the three characters that I hate. Every time they speak, they make me wonder why I still watch their shows.

1. Manny in Modern Family. No kid acts like that. No kid acts anywhere near that. The short girl is also awful.

2. Andy in The Office. Enough. ENOUGH. He deserves to be killed off. This is by far the worst season. Horrible.

3. Andy in Parks & Recreation. I think that's his name. He's the unbelievably dumb guy who used to date the nurse. He's not as annoying as he was in previous seasons, but that's probably because he has fewer lines. I don't like the nurse either.

Disclaimers: I don't watch CBS. I watch two sitcoms on ABC because I have too much time on my hands. I watch the FOX and NBC sitcoms, but I don't watch Whitney and neither should you. Cartoons aren't sitcoms.